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Prediction for CME (2020-07-09T01:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2020-07-09T01:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/15642/-1
CME Note: This event is associated with a filament eruption visible between S30E05 and S30W25 in SDO AIA 193 imagery starting around 2020-07-08T20:32Z. Opening field lines corresponding to this event can also be seen on the SW limb of STEREO A EUVI 195 starting at 2020-07-08T09:05Z. The CME appears as a gradual brightening in the western streamer of STEREO A COR2 and later as a partial halo (southward) in SOHO LASCO C2/C3.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2020-07-13T20:35Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2020-07-14T03:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
Prediction Method Note:

The simulation shows ambient solar wind increase near Earth between 2020-07-13T18:00Z and 2020-07-14T06:00Z.

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/15641/1
Model Inputs:
2020-07-09T03:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=80.0, Lat.=-2.0, Speed=323.0, HalfAngle=33.0, Time21.5=2020-07-09T16:43Z
2020-07-09T01:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=12.0, Lat.=-12.0, Speed=125.0, HalfAngle=25.0, Time21.5=2020-07-10T05:32Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2020-07-14T03:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200709_164400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200709_164400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200709_164400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200709_164400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200709_164400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200709_164400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200709_164400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200709_164400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200709_164400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200709_164400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200709_164400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200709_164400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200709_164400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200709_164400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200709_164400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: -43.70 hour(s)
Difference: -6.42 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Colin Komar (M2M Office) on 2020-07-15T16:17Z

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